Well, try to act surprised about this news, but Bloomberg is reporting that the US Federal Trade Commission has opened a broad probe and investigation into its businesses over concerns of possible antitrust violations. This is being described as a broad probe led by FTC chair Lina Khan, who is widely agreed to be replaced upon the inauguration of Donald Trump. The probe is investigating Microsoft's AI, cloud computing, office software, and security businesses for anti-competitive dominance in their respective fields as well as anti-consumer practices.

As reported by Reuters, one of the major points of contention stems from Microsoft's "punitive licensing terms" such as their deliberate roadblocks making it difficult for customers to move their data from their Azure cloud service to other platforms. The same practices have been observed with Microsoft's OS licenses as well as its office software suite via Office 365. The other major sticking point is Microsoft's AI business and its continual investment into OpenAI which it continues to fund with free flowing cash that The Wall Street Journal estimates has ballooned to $13.75 billion since 2019. That last point is likely one of the main reasons for this new probe as OpenAI and Microsoft are actively negotiating how much equity Microsoft will have by default as OpenAI transitions into being a for-profit company.

In other words, Satya Nadella's AI and cloud empire is under threat... again. You may recall that this summer Microsoft was found guilty of breaking antitrust rules by the EU's competition commission for continually bundling Teams into Office 365 despite being told by the EU commission repeatedly not to do that. Likewise, there's no denying that Khan and veteran staff at the FTC are looking for a rematch with Microsoft following their failed bid to block Microsoft's purchase of Activision-Blizzard-King. In fact, in a final bid to keep that effort alive, the FTC has renewed its efforts to block this merger by citing the thousands of layoffs Microsoft has enacted since the merger has taken place.

Unfortunately, while I think most of us agree all of the FTC's points are true or at least have some merit, it remains to be seen if this probe will last. With the incoming Trump Administration, the chair position at the FTC will likely change. However, to prevent complete cronyism and to block political spoils, no more than three commissioners can be of the same political party. Likewise, Donald Trump generally has not been a strong supporter of tech and with Elon Musk heading a top position in his cabinet, it's anyone's guess what happens with this probe.