With Backwards Compatibility AND Online Account Carry Over, The Next Generation Is A Layup For the Switch 2, Right?

That said, what even is a "console generation" these days? Regardless, as most of you already know, the successor to the Nintendo Switch has yet to be announced, but Nintendo this week did share some interesting details about what they have planned for it. First, the Switch successor will guarantee that Switch titles will be fully playable on it. Second, whatever your Nintendo Switch Online purchases have been on your current Switch, they will fully carry over to the Switch successor. We all kind of knew this was likely going to happen, but it is still a pleasant surprise nonetheless. Nintendo recognizes that the Switch has been the most dominant video game platform for well over five years now and whatever they have in store for the future, it will hedge the software library of the Switch to make the transition to new hardware easier for most.

With Microsoft's Xbox division an unmitigated nightmare and the PS5 Pro feeling like a weird stopgap to the tune of $700, it's hard to imagine Nintendo losing ground. Unless their hardware physically explodes in people's hands while they use it, what are their concerns? Maybe you could argue that they have waited too long so the enthusiasm for the Switch has diminished, but doesn't that disappear the minute the next Switch gets announced? Do you think I'm missing something here?

I think that there are two places where the Switch 2 could falter, not that I think it WILL but where it could.

1) If the hardware just isn't enough of an upgrade. Switch 2 isn't going to compare to base PS5, of course, but if it isn't at least at PS4 level I think people are going to be disappointed. And that's still a lot of performance out of a mobile chipset. PS4 games still look good! It's definitely achievable and it looks like given the specs floating around it will be achieved, but we won't know until we see what it will look like. If the Switch 2 after 8 years is just a smallish upgrade, like Gamecube to Wii, that could kill it.

On a similar note if they do something really stupid, like horrible controllers or NOT MAKING IT PORTABLE, that could also kill it. Those seem less likely, but it's Nintendo. They do weird stuff and they have a history of following up success with failures.

2) The software lineup. We know nothing. People need reasons to buy consoles. Breath of the Wild MADE the Switch. Yes it was on Wii U too, but nobody had one. By launching with BOTW the Switch got instant momentum, and then it followed up with the Mario Kart 8 port and Mario Odyssey and it just built from there. We think Switch 2 has been delayed in part to get the software right, and we're all expecting a 3D Mario game at launch, with maybe something else huge like a new Mario Kart at or near launch, but we don't know. Remember the 3DS launch lineup? Or Gamecube (which looks better in retrospect but underwhelmed at the time.)? This is Nintendo.

I think the Switch 2 will be a big success. Probably not Switch level, because that was in part buoyed by the Pandemic, but maybe Wii level. But never underestimate the ability of Nintendo to miss a layup and crash down on the court in a heap.

ETA: One more thing! If the tariffs go into effect that could seriously jack up the price and damage the North American market. Nintendo is global but the US is still a huge part of their market. That wouldn't kill it but could hurt it.

My main concern about backwards compatibility for the Switch 2, is Nintendo being Nintendo, and instead of just letting people play their Switch 1 games on the Switch 2, they find someway to put a paywall behind doing so. Or they only allow certain games, like a lot of third parties, but their first parties are games you have to purchase "Switch 2 Editions" of again to see the full benefits of the new hardware.

@av_gamer: What do you mean only allow certain games "like a lot of third parties." Are you talking specifically about PS5 versions of PS4 games? Because for something like Ys IX there is a PS4 and a PS5 edition, and if you have the PS4 edition you do not get the PS5 edition for free, but you can play the PS4 version on the PS5 through backwards compatibility.

That seems likely to me for Switch (like BOTW Switch 2 edition), but I think you'll be able to play the Switch 1 version on your Switch 2 for free. Nintendo has done backwards compatibility before a number of times (GB/GBA GBA/DS DS/3DS, Gamecube/Wii Wii/Wii U) and they have never paywalled playing the old version on the new game system, even if they have had a fee for upgrading to the new version, like with Wii U Virtual Console.

They're close to having the Switch be the most bought console of all time. I don't see them blockading the Switch 2 when Switch software is still selling.

I'd argue if anything the opposite has happened. People are desperate enough for a new Switch that it'll probably boost enthusiasm, even if the device appears underwhelming in some ways. All of the rumours for what the hardware is point to it being basically what people want: A Switch that can actually run games without severe compromises. Hopes of it being as powerful or more powerful than the PS4 are probably going to be met since that's not an unreasonable proposition now, even at the price range the Switch is targeting. The Steam Deck, which is in a similar price range, is already nearly there and that thing's got a chip that's a few years old. I would imagine after the success with the Switch, Nintendo will have an easy time convincing Nvidia to give them exactly what they want and will easily surpass the last generation of consoles in terms of power without making the console too pricey. Upscaling allows GPUs to go a long way and there's already been rumours that the new Switch has that so it's likely to at least meet expectations.

Going the safe route with this console is the right thing. Keeping compatibility with old games makes it easy for parents to justify, especially as a lot of older Switches are likely on their last legs right now and probably need replacing soon anyway. Being able to simply buy the new thing and plug it in in place of the old one works perfectly here. Even better they should do some type of 3DS-like system transfer feature that will allow easy transition from the old Switch to the new one.

With how much Microsoft has kneecapped themselves, and with how badly Sony has justified the existence of the PS5 (the lack of exclusives is notable), this seems like an easy generation for the new Switch to win again. As long as they keep bringing the games, the thing will probably sell just as well as the old one did.

It being Nintendo, I want to wait and see how that backwards compatibility works and if there's a fee or some kind of weird half-assed app solution for it, but yeah, it seems like as good a time for them as any. And I hope it is. I hope they knock it out of the park.

I'm curious about this and hope to see a new installment of 3D F-Zero and a Fire Emblem Warriors game based on Fire Emblem Engage.

I mean, it seems like it should be, but at the same time this is also Nintendo we're talking about. The temptation to do something incredibly weird and/or stupid might too strong.

It would be incredibly Nintendo to say something like "Backwards compatibility! But you need to use a version of the OG controller for the console the game originally came out on. We'll see them to you for $40. And they're wired. And the cord is 2cm long."

i am but a single datapoint- but if i'm being honest, the Switch 2 isn't terribly exciting for me. despite being a Raised on Nintendo kid (NES, SNES, N64...and then a giant lapse until Switch)- i need some really compelling software to get me back in the door.

i've had a ball with the Switch and catching up on all those Ninty franchises- but i think i'm more likely to pony up for Steam Deck 2 than a Switch 2 at this point.

admittedly if there's one company that can push a system-seller it's Nintendo- but as an abstract concept, Switch 2 isn't doing a helluva lot for my FOMO presently.